[unclebob]

Be careful what you wish for, remember last time?

 

[mister]

Hmm, good point. I have read before that another big recession is on the horizon. I guess the economy works in boom and bust cycles so we should all be expecting it. The drop in crude price is mostly because of more supply right now though. I think that is different from the last time, but I don't really know enough to say for sure.

 

[mojo]

Hmm, good point. I have read before that another big recession is on the horizon. I guess the economy works in boom and bust cycles so we should all be expecting it. The drop in crude price is mostly because of more supply right now though. I think that is different from the last time, but I don't really know enough to say for sure.

yea but it buries US shale plays. They're heavily leveraged, they're were shadows of profitability at $100/bbl, south of $70 there's more debt going into the ground then oil coming up.

 

[David]

The effect this will have on the coming years won't be pretty, more than likely to follow the same trend as last time

 

[mister]

Won't OPEC just curb supply to make the prices go up again?

 

[mojo]

Won't OPEC just curb supply to make the prices go up again?

what incentive do they have? lower prices keep their product in demand and buries expensive production from tar sands, fracking and deep water. Less competition for a fungible commodity (1 barrel of oil=1 barrel of oil no matter where it came out of the ground) is something they will exploit every day of the week, especially as light and sweet crude the Saudis ship is far easier to refine than dirty, heavy and sour crude that comes out of the tar sands and places like Venezuela (who is already being monkey hammered)

 

[David]

Yup, they will milk it as much as they can, that's just how it works. As long as they have the resources or can be resourceful, it's all going to continue.

On our end it will be cool seeing prices drop to what they were years ago but something we could be paying for following that.

 

[mister]

Yup, they will milk it as much as they can, that's just how it works. As long as they have the resources or can be resourceful, it's all going to continue.

On our end it will be cool seeing prices drop to what they were years ago but something we could be paying for following that.

Fracking is lowering oil prices, but isn't it also poisoning ground water and causing earthquakes? It might not affect everybody, but it will affect some.

 

[mojo]

Fracking is lowering oil prices, but isn't it also poisoning ground water and causing earthquakes? It might not affect everybody, but it will affect some.

Fracking is not lowering oil prices. The minute prices dips below ~$100/bbl Fracking ops are underwater. They need the higher prices in order to produce profitably.

As mentioned above, Facking, Tar Sands and heavy sour crude have all taken huge smacks in the last week. Canadian Heavy broke below $50/bbl today.

Look

As you can see Fracking and Canadian Heavy are much higher on the break even scale...