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So we've had a few abbreviated discussions about the NX's relationship to the RX. The most interesting one for me is looking at how the NX will sell in the shadow of the RX. See the RX essentially birthed the luxury crossover market when it debuted in 1997, Mercedes quickly followed the lead a year later and BMW hopped in a year after that. The rest is history. Whats interesting however is that the Lexus is still to this day the most successful in terms of volume.



Sales Figures:

Lexus RX

2013: 103,920
2012: 95, 381
2011: 82,595

Mercedes ML

2013: 41,326
2012: 38,101
2011: 35,835

BMW X5

2013: 39,818
2012: 44,445
2011: 40,547


That's Marc Marquez like domination if you ask me ;) If you don't know who Marc MArquez is google him and you'll quickly find out what that means ;)

To date the RX shares a top two position with the ES as the best selling Lexus' of all time, the question is can the NX replicate that type of sheer domination of the Market like the RX? Lets see if we cant reverse engineer a bit of sales forecasting. I know we're going to stray into the realm of apples to pears but bear with me and put your free association to the test ;)

Using the 2013 sales data for RX, ML and X5 we can see that the ML moves 40% of the RX's volume, or RX sells 251% of the ML's volume. X5 shuffles off 38% of the RX's volume, or RX moves 260% of X5 volume. Lets see how those percentages work when applied to X3 and GLK sales.

GLK

2013: 32,553
2012: 29,364
2011: 24,310

X3

2013: 30,623
2012: 35,173
2011: 27,793


Again, I understand that we're comparing apples to pears but besides not caring, I do think that there is some value in at least considering Mercedes to BMW to Lexus volumes from the larger segment. Especially considering the NX is entering the hottest segment in the league right now.

Using 2013 numbers for GLK and X3 applying Lexus 251% and 260% volume advantages leaves us with a range of 79,619 to 81,708. Lexus is conservatively forecasting 26,400 units per year. Personally I think they are going to shatter that, but of course there are some caveats...

Consider that the RX has built itself a near legendary reputation or reliability over the years, as much as the NX will benefit from brand association it is still an unproven model. More so the NX200t is making use of a brand new untested Turbo engine. VVT Turbos have proven to be finicky, just gander at the Ecoboost range from Ford to see what I'm saying. I'm not sure if the NX can provide that type of bullet proff reliability right off the bat, and where it gets worrisome is that if the first and second year prove to be niggly, glitchey or downright disastrous it will set the tone for the entire lifespan of the NX.

The other thing to consider is if the NX will cannibalize the RX to a degree and how lexus will deal with that. The RX is well beyond payback and a high margin earner for Lexus, will they tolerate a destruction of its dominance by a RAV4?

Questions, questions and more questions. Anyone have an answer?
 

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Didn't Mercedes come out with the M-class BEFORE RX?

RX came out later i believe and just dominated because the 1st gen M-class was a POS, half minivan + half off-road (ladder frame with low range). So, it was neither here nor there...and people in that market/price did not care for an off-road capable vehicle as much as an all-weather vehicle that puts luxury first. In addition, M-class was a horrible Alabama experiment in terms of quality and materials...it was during Mercedes' cut-all-corners-and-live-off-reputtion initiative to keep costs low.

Doesn't the NX compete more with the GLA and X2 or whatever is smaller than X3??
 

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As for bulletproof or not, that is why i am getting 300h! :) Talk about being proven! I am actually quite happy that Toyota stuck with Ni-batteries instead of using Li-ion batteries.
 

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I think that the NX is a tiny step up from the GLA, but it might compete with tha tmore directly than it does with the ML or X5. Both of those are a bit bigger than the NX to be directly competing.
 

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I think that the NX is a tiny step up from the GLA, but it might compete with tha tmore directly than it does with the ML or X5. Both of those are a bit bigger than the NX to be directly competing.
NX is really more against GLA...it may compete with GLK...but definitely not ML (or X5). ML is more against RX.
 
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